Decent
radiational cooling led to a low of 69F last night before the low
clouds moved in. The low clouds then broke up partially, leading to a
warmup to a high of 86F, with a maximum wind of only 14-15 kt so far,
though they could get a bit stronger this evening. A few showers have
formed in the vicinity, but they are weak and very scattered and appear
unlikely to provide KSAT with any measurable rain for day 1.
Day 14 might be the most challenging forecast of all at San Antonio.
Powerful supercells are developing in west Texas now, and they will
likely congeal into a perhaps disorganized line of showers and
thunderstorms tonight that will push southeastward and probably just
barely reach San Antonio late tonight before dissipating, but models
disagree on whether this will happen and if so, how strong they will
still be when they reach San Antonio. Even with no storms, low clouds
will return and thicken with the moist southeasterly flow, limiting any
cooling. However, if the storms do come, the gust front will cool it
down further, with a brief period of stronger winds when the maximum
wind could occur, leading to uncertainty in maximum wind.
The clouds will break up at least slightly later tomorrow, but just
models disagree on just how much, with NAM 3-km showing cloudier
conditions with it taking longer to re-heat the rain-cooled air from the
storms late tonight, while the HRRR shows clouds breaking faster with a
much warmer high temperature, and other models in between. With a bit
of daytime heating and moist low-level air, scattered light and shallow
showers are possible in the afternoon and evening again, though like
today, there appears to not be any strong trigger to produce stronger
storms. The lack of sunshine may prevent the already not very strong
winds aloft from mixing down to the surface, making whether the gust
front from storms late tonight arrives crucial in determining the
maximum wind.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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