Although it is
sunny with relatively low dew points right now due to yesterday morning’s cold
front, low-level southeasterly winds will bring back moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico tonight, leading to low-level clouds stopping radiational cooling late
in the night. Before that, there will be decent to good radiational cooling,
perhaps slightly limited by the light southeasterly wind. The low-level clouds
will break up at least partially by tomorrow afternoon, leading to a decent
warmup, but not to its full potential if it were sunny.
Thunderstorms will
likely initiate to the northwest ahead of a broad and discombobulated low-pressure
system slowly ejecting out of the southern Rockies, though there isn’t a clear
strong trigger for convective initiation, making the forecast tricky, and those
storms are not likely to push into San Antonio before the end of the period
(Wednesday 06z). However, there could also be scattered showers and
thunderstorms initiating in the vicinity tomorrow evening, though there is
model disagreement with HRRR showing some storms and NAM 3-km showing very
little. A stormier scenario or with earlier convection initiation would likely
lead to a slightly cooler high as well. With any rain falling with convection,
rainfall is highly uncertain. The daytime heating will help mix down winds
aloft down to the surface, though the winds will not be particularly strong.
But if there are convective storms, they would lead to a brief period of strong
winds, which is when the maximum wind would occur, leading to uncertainty in
maximum wind as well.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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