Freezing rain and
then rain continues, with it dropping to 30F last night. As expected,
temperatures have barely risen today due to cold air damming, even as the
freezing rain becomes lighter and more intermittent, with a high of 33F.
A much stronger
low-pressure system will head into the eastern Great Lakes tonight into
tomorrow morning. Ironically, the associated cold front will finally break the
cold air damming, as winds shift to northwestly downsloping winds off the
Appalachians and strengthen, and cold air advection promotes descent and
vertical mixing. This mixing, combined with sunshine later in the afternoon,
will lead to a brief temperature spike before the cold advection really settles
in. Though low-level cold air typically stays in place longer than modeled, the
strong downsloping wind and descent should fully mix out the low-level cold air
by early afternoon, with low clouds breaking up and early afternoon sunshine
enhancing the temperature spike. The west-southwesterly wind right at the
surface also tends to be stronger at KLYH than USL, like on day 4, perhaps due
to a local gap through the mountains through which the wind is funneled and not
blocked.
Clearing skies
will lead to some radiational cooling tomorrow evening, and there will be
strong cold advection leading to the low likely occurring at the end (Friday
06z), but winds will be too strong for ideal radiational cooling (no rapid
drops expected).
(GFS looks way too
cold -- not sure what's going on it, and HRRR might be too warm tomorrow
night.)
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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