Day 5 of Lynchburg, VA (KLYH)

Very active day ahead. The high will occur near the beginning (Tuesday 06z) as low to mid-level clouds thicken and prevent any radiational cooling, but precipitation has not arrived to cool the air yet. Snow and ice pellets almost all day tomorrow into tomorrow night, heavy at times, likely changing to freezing rain then, will minimize any diurnal temperature cycle. The temperature will drop quickly to freezing or below after precipitation starts due to evaporation and sublimation in the initially dry low-level air until the air becomes saturated. It typically gets colder than most guidance under heavy precipitation. Although warm advection will occur aloft, the low-level cold air will be dammed against the Appalachians and not budge. The low will occur tomorrow evening before the precipitation lightens and changes to freezing rain. Rain freezing on surfaces releases latent heat, causing it to slowly warm up given the lack of any additional cold advection. 

 

Source: PivotalWeather

 

 

Source: PivotalWeather