Since
we took the weekend break for the WxChallenge, it has gotten much
warmer, with all the snow cover in the vicinity having disappeared.
Still, with winds calming down tonight with mostly clear skies, rapid
radiational cooling will occur, with it getting colder than most model
guidance perhaps except USL. A compact low-pressure system will move
almost directly over Aberdeen tomorrow afternoon, but with little
moisture and only weak temperature gradients, little or no precipitation
is expected, with mostly just an increase in mid and upper-level clouds
expected. The initially southerly winds will lead to a rapid warmup
tomorrow even with only partial sunshine due to a broken (but not
complete) mid-level cloud cover, with high temperatures likely somewhat
above model guidance (and well above USL) like the past few days and
with no more snow cover.
A burst of northwesterly winds is possible tomorrow evening, but how
strong is highly dependent on the exact track of the low-pressure
system, with the strong winds being mainly to the south of the track.
The HRRR shows a farther north track and has the burst of winds reaching
KABR, but it is usually not good beyond 18 hours, and most other models
suggest that the low-pressure system tracks a little farther south,
leading to weaker winds or at least a delay in the wind until evening
when there is no daytime heating to help mix stronger winds from aloft
down to the surface. The northwesterly wind is still bringing a Pacific
air mass rather than an arctic air mass, with only a gradual cooldown
expected tomorrow evening, not enough to overwrite the radiational
cooling low tonight.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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