Clear sky and
light southwesterly wind will lead to good radiational cooling tonight, but
maybe the wind will be just enough to prevent ideal radiational cooling.
Downsloping westerly wind as a dry cold front passes tomorrow, combined with
plenty of sunshine, will lead to a quick warmup likely much warmer than most
models based off recent history, and overachieving temperatures on sunny days
are common at this time of year with the sun angle slowly increasing and no
leaves on the trees to divert the sun’s energy to evapotranspiration. Then,
there will be a quick cooldown tomorrow night as the cooler air moves in and
clear skies and extremely dry air lead to radiational cooling. The sunshine and
downsloping will help mix down whatever winds from aloft (though not that
strong, maybe 15 to at most 20 kt) down to the surface. Depending on how fast
the cooler air comes in and how strong the winds are, it is possible that the
low occurs at the end (Wednesday 06z).
| Source: PivotalWeather |
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