Downsloping northwesterly winds and sunshine led to a high of 72F today, way above the models. Surprisingly, it cooled all the way down to 41F last night, as winds calmed down just enough, though it was expected to get about that low this evening for the day 1 low anyway. Winds will switch to northeasterly this evening, removing the downslope component, with cold advection continuing, causing it will cool it down rapidly. Clear skies early in the night and winds not being too strong will lead to quick radiational cooling as well, though perhaps the wind will be just enough to prevent ideal cooling, and the current temperature so far above model guidance means it may be difficult to drop below guidance tonight. Just how fast it cools down this evening will be critical for the high temperature, since it will likely near the beginning (Wednesday 06z) as the cold air is still moving in. However, if there is radiational cooling, temperatures could jump around a bit, with the high temperature occurring in a brief spike.
Low-level clouds late in the night will stop radiational cooling, and combined with low-level cold advection, will also prevent it from warming up much during the day tomorrow. Winds will be rather light with the stable low-level air preventing much mixing of winds from aloft down to the surface. The low could either occur tonight or tomorrow night, when a few showers will likely lead to evaporative cooling that will be dammed against the Appalachians, though models are indicating that any rain will only be spotty and light and may not completely saturate the low-levels. If it doesn’t rain, it could stay a bit warmer than model guidance, but otherwise, temperatures will probably be stay steady close to or just above freezing tomorrow evening.
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| Source: Meteogram Generator |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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