Last night was
quite different from previous recent nights, with a persistent layer of
mid-level and another layer of high-level clouds preventing from getting below 47F
last night, even with some clearing of mid-level clouds late in the night. In
that case, the day 7 low could occur tonight with fewer clouds at least
initially. There was also already 9 kt last night, perhaps due to the leftover
pressure gradient and lack of nocturnal inversion to prevent winds from mixing
down to the surface. The clouds cleared out earlier than expected, with late
afternoon sunshine leading to a high of 68F. Smoke appears to be rather minimal
and not affecting temperatures in any measurable way.
Mid to high level
clouds will increase again after 06z tonight, limiting radiational cooling but the
clouds will be higher up and not as thick as last night, allowing for a colder
low with little to no wind again. There could also be a period of more clearing
around sunrise when the temperature can quickly dip some more. Mid to high
level clouds will slow down the warm up tomorrow as well but there should still
be some sunshine to allow for a good warmup, and there could be a period of
fewer clouds in the early afternoon tomorrow. It will also take more heating to mix out the colder, steeper nocturnal inversion, so skeptical of it going way above guidance like today. Not sure what to think of model
guidance when there is a moderate amount of cloud cover like this (periods of
thinner and thicker clouds but with moist layers generally being marginally saturated)
but probably not a bad idea to just go close to models for the low and slightly
above for the high (especially USL). Also, fires in Idaho are spewing out more
smoke that is advecting northeastward into Montana in the southwesterly flow
aloft. Some of the smoke will reach Missoula but looks to dissipate just enough
by later tomorrow to have only a small if any impact on the high temperature. Weak
west-northwesterly winds are also expected, with little pressure gradient or
winds aloft to cause stronger winds, similar to today.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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