No rain at KEYW so far, but it still got to 78F last night with a period of partly cloudy skies and calm winds. Some periods of sunshine led to a high of 86F, with maximum wind of only 9 kt so far. There is still a chance of a thunderstorm or two this evening and tonight, both before and after 06z. There might actually be a better chance of thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow morning as a cold front approaches, triggering thunderstorms. Once again, if a storm happens to nail KEYW, there could be a substantial amount of rain, with lower low temperatures and stronger maximum winds, but the storms could also miss, making for an uncertain forecast. HRRR shows more widespread thunderstorms than NAM 3-km. Global models also disagree, with GFS showing much less than other models. The storms will likely become more scattered by afternoon, with some clearing likely then, but likely too little too late to get as warm as the last few days. Some models are even suggesting that the high will occur tonight before any storms and “cold” outflow, though I’m not sure about that as they tend to underdo the diurnal cycle due to smearing the surrounding ocean onto KEYW.
Winds will still be relatively light at first (except during any thunderstorms), but gradually get stronger later tomorrow into tomorrow night as the cold front crosses Key West while diffusing (the frontolysis typical for the Florida Keys). The modeled wind (outside of USL) could also be too high given smearing of nearby ocean grid points (where there is less friction and stronger surface wind) to KEYW. USL might be pretty good actually. With the front diffusing, it will not be a sharp boundary, with temperatures and dew points only gradually going down tomorrow night, possibly causing the low to be at the end (Thursday 06z) by a small margin if it doesn’t rain hard with associated lower temperatures tonight.
 |
| Source: PivotalWeather |
 |
| Source: PivotalWeather |
No comments:
Post a Comment