The past day has been quiet at Missoula, with a low of 33F this morning and likely a high of 75F this afternoon, warmer than most days lately; not sure how it got so warm given lack of downsloping and the struggle to warm up last week. Very quiet for day 5 with clear skies and almost no wind and therefore quick radiational cooling, likely much colder than most models, perhaps 1-3F warmer than last night (the warmth this afternoon and 37F dew point does make me question a tad on how cold it can get tonight). Full sunshine will lead to a quick warmup, but maybe not quite as warm as modeled like with days 1 and 4 with no wind or downsloping to help with vertical mixing, but nonetheless a model bias correction indicates it should be 1-3F warmer than today, perhaps depending on how cold it gets tonight. However, model biases have been more inconsistent than in most other cities not surrounded by mountains. Also, there might be a bit of smoke filtering the sun a bit, but most of the smoke should be off to the southeast. There’s a chance of some west-northwesterly channeled wind to get going in the afternoon, though the lack of full vertical mixing will likely limit this to <10 kt, perhaps just a bit more than today which has had almost no wind so far.
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