With decent radiational
cooling last night with still clear skies, it cooled down to 49F, but then low
clouds moved in and became more widespread in the late morning, stopping the daytime
warmup to 60F today. It actually stayed below 55F not far to the north where
the clouds came in earlier and were thicker. There was also a “surprise” burst
of 12 kt near beginning of period as secondary cold front came in. With the low
clouds solidly in now, they will likely persist through most or all of tonight.
There is some model disagreement on this, but the models actually showing the
low clouds right now (like HRRR, though it shows too much cloud cover) show
them persisting tonight. This, along with a persistent light breeze (currently
northerly but will turn to northeasterly) will limit radiational cooling tonight,
but the low could actually occur at the end (Friday 06z) with clearer skies
then and slightly less wind. The clouds will likely break up somewhat tomorrow,
but just how much is uncertain. My guess is that it will be in between the cloudy
all-day HRRR and NAM 3-km models (which have been too cloudy) and sunny all-day
models like ECMWF (which have been too clear), with it gradually clearing out
through the day. The high will likely be slightly cooler than today’s high with
the slightly cooler air mass more established.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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