We are starting
another dry, almost cloudless week for KSPS! Light westerly winds will lead to
decent (though not quite ideal) radiational cooling tonight. Winds will switch
to northerly tomorrow but will rather stay weak, with sunshine
allowing for a quick warmup likely to above most model guidance like last week.
A dry, almost cloudless cold front will pass through tomorrow evening, bringing
a burst of winds, and this is when the maximum wind will occur. These
front-based bursts of wind tend to be relatively brief spikes that are
underestimated by models, usually even the USL though maybe not by much this time. It's a bit unclear how much of the 35 kt winds at 925 hPa will mix down to the surface with the nocturnal inversion with clear skies, even with the cold advection reducing stability. The HRRR seems unrealistically cool tomorrow and also has an unrealistically diffuse cold front and lack of strong winds behind it. Even with the cold front, the winds
will also limit radiational cooling, likely preventing it from getting colder
at the end than tonight.
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