Welcome
back to WxChallenge, and we're off to a much more active start than
last time. Northwesterly wind off Lake Erie tonight will lead to
lake-moderated temperatures tonight, with little cooldown, though some
of the model guidance appears to overestimate the lake moderation,
especially with the snow cooling down the boundary layer via evaporation
and sublimation. The wind off the lake will also lead to lake-effect
snow, though it might be concentrated in a band enhanced by a connection
to Lake Huron. It might not be a solid band, and the heaviest will be
to the southeast where there is upslope enhancement, but I expect KERI
to get in the band from time to time.
During the day tomorrow, winds will gradually shift to southwesterly, with a slight warming and another period of lake-effect snow in the afternoon for a few hours when the wind is a bit more parallel to the long axis of Lake Erie. It does seem like there will be more breaks in the clouds than today, so it should get higher than the 32F high today that was below most model guidance, but I am skeptical of temperatures as warm as USL or NWS. The
wind will then turn more southerly tomorrow night, causing the lake-effect snow
band will push to the north of Erie, with the sky possibly briefly
clearing out very slightly Tuesday evening, and combined with an
offshore flow, will actually lead to colder temperatures Tuesday night,
when the low will be achieved (even with winds generally too strong for
good radiational cooling). It will be quite breezy for the entire
period, with no clear time for maximum wind.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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