No lake-effect snow for day 5. Instead, we have a much milder air mass with weak southerly flow tonight into tomorrow morning before switching to a light westerly or northwesterly wind late tomorrow afternoon as a weak low-pressure system forms to the south and begins to strengthen late in the day. The high temperature will likely be achieved in the early afternoon before the wind shift with weak downsloping southerly flow and maybe a little sunshine. Temperatures usually get warmer than model guidance in this setup, though with low clouds persistent and snow on the ground still (though melting and becoming less reflective), it's a bit less certain. Still, the current temperature of 48F even with fog and westerly winds off Lake Erie (which is actually cooler than that) suggests going warm. The low-pressure system will then bring rain (no undercatch!) and a light northwesterly wind that is only slightly cooler, with the real cold air mass lagging behind. For so close to the event, rainfall variation among models is surprisingly large. The low could occur tonight with any slightly clearing and winds not too strong, or could occur at the end (Wednesday 06z) with subtle cool advection via weak northwesterly wind.
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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