Southwesterly
winds switched to northwesterly winds off Lake Erie last night, causing a
sudden warmup with a high of 38F and a maximum wind of 17 kt. Lake-effect snow resumed this afternoon and became very heavy, with already 0.32" so far (USL wins!) but
will shut off tonight as winds turn to southerly (offshore). The offshore flow
will allow colder temperatures from inland to advect tonight, but eventually,
the southerly flow will bring in warmer air from farther south tomorrow and
tomorrow night, leading to a slow warmup. Almost complete overcast with low December
sun angle means temperatures will largely be driven by temperature advection
and not by the diurnal cycle, with the high occurring near the end (Thursday 06z). After being dry for most of the day (except perhaps
brief period of light snow tomorrow morning), winds switching to west-southwesterly
near the end parallel to the long axis of Lake Erie will lead to
more lake-effect snow, perhaps a rather strong band enhanced by a subtle low-level convergence zone right at the end of
day 2, leading to a tricky precipitation forecast depending on whether the strong band comes before or after 06z (my guess is immediately before).
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