Day 7 of Erie, PA (KERI)

The high was 41F at the beginning before gradual cool advection brought temperatures down. Some snow has fallen with a rather heavy synoptic band associated with the strengthening storm off to the east, with precip total of 0.13” so far. Intermittent lake-effect snow showers/squalls are still expected this evening.

The push of real arctic air will arrive later tonight with little if any wind direction change, with rather strong west-southwesterly winds (with minimal moderation off Lake Erie) continuing. Temperatures will likely stay below coarser model guidance again (probably closer to the high-resolution guidance) as models struggle to resolve the lake-land temperature contrast, and heavy lake-effect snow bands will pull colder air aloft down to the surface. The high will be near the beginning (Thursday 06z) and the low will be tomorrow evening before winds slightly more onshore will lead to a slow warmup. Like almost every day, I expect USL to be much too high with the winds given the lower surface temperatures and lower instability in the immediate area from heavy snow (compared to over Lake Erie). The colder air aloft and persistent wind almost parallel to the long axis of Lake Erie will lead to a persistent band of heavy lake-effect snow in the Erie area. There will be a strong gradient in precipitation amounts depending on exactly where the band sets up (over or just a tad north of Erie?). The other question is, how much undercatch will there be? Given the rather cold temperatures and breezy conditions, I expect some undercatch, but with precipitation being heavy enough to still register a decent amount of precipitation.

 

Source: PivotalWeather

 

Source: PivotalWeather