Day 6 of Erie, PA (KERI)

It did clear out enough for a quick dip to 38F last night despite the high dew points yesterday evening – perhaps the only time in Erie that we see real radiational cooling. Some sunshine and southerly wind led to a warm up to 46F, tempered by snow cover and lack of strong southerly flow (it reached 50F+ not far to the south) before clouds and rain moved in. Temperatures are fluctuating strangely now, perhaps due to the slight northerly wind with varying lake influence. Maximum wind is only 9 kt, a change from the strong winds of last week. Heaviest rain is still to come this evening. 

 

There will be a break in the rain tonight, but it will still be cloudy with no radiational cooling, with the high occurring at the beginning (Wednesday 06z). The current temperature of 41-42F seems to suggest a cooler than modeled high with no warm advection to push temperatures up, though there's always the chance of a little temperature boost from enhanced mixing when winds gradually strengthen later tonight. Then, as a low-pressure system strengthens well to the east, tomorrow, Erie will be in an area of light rain and/or snow on the northwestern side of the storm. Then, it will dry up briefly before the familiar strong cold west-southwesterly winds and lake-effect snow arrive late in the day. The deep-layer instability with the upper-level low will promote repeated snow squalls in the area, which could make up for the wind direction being not quite perfect and air mass not super cold yet for the traditional intense single band at Erie. There will be some moderation from Lake Erie as usual of these cold air masses, but the west-southwesterly winds will not be directly off Lake Erie, leading to less moderation than some models may suggest. Also, the lake-effect snow bands will pull down cold air aloft down to the surface and cool the air through sublimation, leading to quick dips for the low temperature near the end (Thursday 06z). Undercatch is not expected to be too severe with the temperatures not dropping below freezing until near the end. The USL wind appears to be unrealistically high given the wind not blowing onshore and frictional dissipation over land.

 

Source: PivotalWeather

 

 

Source: PivotalWeather