Clouds broke just enough with calm winds for a dip to 26F last night, both before 06z (for day 5) and then around sunrise (for day 6). In between, there were lake-effect clouds and a snow shower that surprisingly registered 0.02" at the station. Perhaps the undercatch was nonexistent with the warmer temperatures and lack of wind. It rose to 38F so far with southwesterly winds starting to increase and clouds having moved back in. It could get a little higher before 06z tonight as warm advection and clouds continue, offsetting any nighttime cooling. The winds will also get stronger overnight, though the nocturnal inversion will likely prevent efficient mixing of the stronger winds from aloft. The winds will calm down to around 5 kt by early morning, and with clearer skies then, could allow for a last minute temperature dip below model guidance. There is some uncertainty on the high tomorrow due to possible low-level moisture and clouds trapped underneath an inversion, but most likely, the downsloping southwesterly wind will lead to enough breaks in the clouds for sunshine to efficiently warm it up to well above today's temperatures, with a lean more towards the higher end of model guidance (e.g. HRRR, MOS, MOS-X, NWS).
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| Source: PivotalWeather |
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