Day 6 of Traverse City, MI (KTVC)

As expected, clouds prevented much of a cool down last night, but the day 5 low should still occur tonight. Some breaks of sun and warm Lake Michigan influence led to a high of 37F, and the maximum wind was only 5 kt so far with almost no pressure gradient in the area, though there might be slightly stronger winds this evening. Some clearing will lead to good radiational cooling early tonight, likely lower than modeled, though temperatures approaching the dew point as well as lingering clouds will slow down the cool down later on. There might also be some lake-effect snow showers later in the night, but it will probably be hard for the station to record measurable precipitation given the undercatch and brevity of any snow. Southwesterly winds will begin to advect warmer in tomorrow, but not in time for it to be much warmer than today, especially with modestly thick clouds. The high might occur at or just before the end (Thursday 06z) as warm advection continues and clouds remain thick at least for the early part of the night. The wind maximum will also likely occur near the end as the pressure gradient strengthens, though the nocturnal inversion should prevent the strong winds aloft from mixing down to the surface efficiently, with the nighttime southwesterly winds seemingly often having been weaker than modeled.

 

Source: PivotalWeather