Day 4 of Baltimore, MD (KBWI)

Indeed, the shallow low-level cold air hung on at KBWI late in the night, with a low of 44F before that. Eventually, the inversion mixed out enough to reach an incredibly hard to predict high of 62F. With almost no wind, temperatures are all over the place; Inner Harbor not far away only reached 56F! Still a maximum of only 7 kt so far! Only 0.09” so far, but most of it is still to come tonight with showers and possible thunderstorms. Most of the rain will be done by 06z, with only a couple of showers leftover afterward for day 4. Also, a subtle Chesapeake Bay breeze will cause a cooldown tonight, with the low likely occurring late in the night due to this. High resolution models should resolve this subtle feature better. Later tomorrow, winds shift to downsloping out of the west, and combined with weak cold advection aloft, will promote better mixing out of the inversion and actually lead to much warmer surface daytime temperatures, especially with partly cloudy or mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Still, there’s uncertainty as to when it clears and mixes out tomorrow, which will influence just how warm it gets. I do think the synoptic setup with the low pressure to the north and westerly flow will lead to an early enough clearing and mixing to yield a high on the warm side of model guidance. Cold advection and mostly clear skies will lead to more of a cooldown tomorrow night, though I doubt it will be cooler than tonight.

 

Source: Wunderground

 

Source: PivotalWeather