Day 3 of Baltimore, MD (KBWI)

It seems like there were enough clouds even early on to prevent much radiational cooling, with a low of 36F. A brief thinning of the clouds allowed for a warmup to a high of 45F by early afternoon before cooling back down to 42F. The 45F should be the final high as the warm surge as likely not arriving until after 06z tonight. There has also been very little wind (maximum of 6 kt so far), as expected. Given the arrival of warm surge after 06z, the day 3 low will be at the beginning (06z tonight) and probably on the cold side of model guidance with it struggling to scour out the low-level cold air at first. However, once the southerly or southwesterly winds reach KBWI (still rather weak), it will warm considerably, though they still might not be strong enough to mix out the inversion, leading to uncertainty in the high temperature, but I would still lean a bit on the less windy and cooler side. Clouds and rain will limit the daytime warming after that, with winds switching to light northerly by evening, causing some cool down, but still staying much warmer than at the beginning.

 

Source: PivotalWeather