Surprisingly, after reaching 50F early in the night, it warmed up with a bit of southerly wind and increased high-level clouds, and then it dropped down to 49F briefly later in the night. Partly cloudy skies and a bit of warm advection led to a quick warmup to 71-72F. Maximum wind is 8 kt so far, but I suspect they will strengthen a bit this evening. The wind will veer to southeasterly tonight, preventing any cool influence from Lake Pontchartrain. The low will be tricky again tonight as it might not be completely overcast at first, allowing for a bit of cooling. There might also be a subtle mesoscale weak warm front, behind which low clouds become more widespread and southeasterly winds and warm advection become stronger, stopping any cool down and leading to it warming up instead. If the mesoscale warm front passes after 06z, which appears more likely, that would lead to the low being on the cooler side of model guidance, though there will probably still be enough wind to prevent good radiational cooling. Clouds will partially clear out tomorrow, with increasing southerly winds and soaring temperatures, likely above model guidance, like today. The NAM 3-km seems unrealistically cloudy and cool. The warmup will also lead to greater mixing of stronger winds aloft down to the surface (potential for 20+ kt).
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| Source: TropicalTidbits |
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